Takeaways from October New Home Sales Report
New Home Sales totaled 458,000 units (SAAR) in October, up 0.7 percent from September’s revised numbers.
- Zillow predicted new home sales to fall to about 455,000 units (SAAR) in October from the pre-revised 467,000 units (SAAR) in September.
- The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was 471,000 units (SAAR).
- The drop in interest rates in October to below 4 percent for a 30-year FRM may have given new home sales a slight bump up.
September sales were revised down, meaning it was a worse month than initially believed, but still slightly better than August.
- September’s new home sales were revised down from 467,000 units (SAAR) to 455,000 units (SAAR).
- Initial data released by the U.S. Census Bureau suggested new home sales were essentially flat in September.
- Considering the revisions to the September data, our forecast model would have predicted an increase of about 1 percent to 459,000 units (SAAR).
Sales have essentially been flat in 2014.
- Sales have fluctuated since January around an average of 434,000 units (SAAR).
- Sales have only surpassed the January level of 457,000 units (SAAR) in two months this year: May, and this month, October.
- This month saw a slightly larger increase in new home sales as compared to September’s 0.4 percent increase.
The median sales price of new homes sold in October was $305,000, up 16.5 percent from September. However, this increase is somewhat inflated by the 9 percent drop in the median sale price in September.
- Zillow forecasted the median sale price of new homes to be $271,500, up 5.6 percent from September’s seasonally adjusted level, but still below August’s level of $287,000.
- This was the largest month-over-month percent increase in the median sale price on record. However, this increase is somewhat inflated due to the second largest month-over-month decrease on record in September of 9 percent.
