The October reading of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index is like a world-class Olympic sprinter who is just past their prime – no longer setting records, but still moving with blazing speed.
The national Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 19.1% year-over-year in September, down from 19.7% in August. Non-seasonally adjusted annual growth was also somewhat slower in October from September in both the smaller 20-city composite index (to 18.4%, from 19.1%) and 10-city index (to 17.1% from 18.9%). On a monthly (seasonally adjusted) basis, the national index was up 0.8% from September, while the 10- and 20-city indices were up 0.8% and 0.9% month-over-month, respectively.
| ZILLOW FORECAST, RELEASED 11/30/21 | ACTUAL CASE-SHILLER INDICES, RELEASED 12/28/21 |
HISTORICAL MEDIAN ABSOLUTE ERROR* | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
17.4% | 17.1% | 0.2% |
| 20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
19.8% | 18.4% | 0.1% |
| U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
19.1% | 19.1% | 0.1% |
| *Calculation of Median Absolute Errors are based on Zillow’s forecasts dating to 2011. The national Case-Shiller forecasts began in 2014. | |||
After reaching an all-time high in August, annual house price growth in the United States has decelerated in each of the last two months, but appreciation remains well above any rate ever measured prior to this year. Since the start of the pandemic, house prices in the U.S. have been inflated by historically low interest rates, supply restrictions which included a foreclosure moratorium, and increased savings for a down payment due to limited options for discretionary spending. House price growth is now slowing because many of these supports have expired or are dwindling. But other supports remain – the U.S. labor market touts low unemployment and robust wage growth, a tsunami of millennials are reaching the peak age for first time homebuyers, and the for-sale inventory unexpectedly tightened in October and November. House price appreciation will continue to slow from this summer’s unsustainable levels, but these conditions ensure that growth will comfortably exceed normal rates over the next year.
Monthly growth in November as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to accelerate from October in both the 10- and 20-city indices, and slow in the national index. Annual growth in November is expected to slow in all three main indices. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the November S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, January 25.
| INDEX | ACTUAL OCTOBER CASE-SHILLER CHANGE |
ZILLOW’S FORECAST FOR THE CASE-SHILLER NOVEMBER INDICES |
|---|---|---|
| 10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
0.8% | 1.3% |
| 10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
17.1% | 16.7% |
| 20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
0.9% | 1.4% |
| 20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
18.4% | 18.3% |
| U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.0% | 0.9% |
| U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
19.1% | 18.6% |
Note: Case-Shiller and Case-Shiller Index are registered trademarks of CoreLogic Solutions, LLC. The statements herein are not endorsed by or provided in association or connection with CoreLogic, LLC.