What happened: The National Association of Realtors existing home sales count increased modestly, 1.2%, in October. The pace of home sales remained slightly ahead of last year’s pace, up just 1.7%.
October home sales mostly reflect homes that went pending in late August and September. Buyers took advantage of a sharp decline in mortgage rates that preceded the Federal Reserve’s September rate cut. Inventory held fairly flat, and the median sale rose in value despite a flat market, reflecting that homes in the lower price ranges have become relatively less likely to transact.
Why it matters: A sharp improvement in housing affordability resulted in somewhat higher than usual housing activity for this time of year. According to Zillow data, buyers and sellers returned in October.
Improvements in home sales are expected to continue through November — Zillow projects existing home sales measured by NAR to total 4.09 million in 2025. This would represent a 0.6% increase from 2024.
The decline in mortgage rates supported leading indicators of demand. While mortgage rates remain in the sub-6.5% range we expect to see similar muted improvements. True improvement would likely require further declines in rates or an unstuck and improved labor market.