Five Takeaways From the October Existing Home Sales Report

By Aaron Terrazas on 20 Nov 2014

Existing home sales totaled 5.26 million units (SAAR) in October, up 1.5 percent from September

• Zillow predicted existing home sales to fall 0.5 percent from September, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 5.14 million units. The consensus forecast was a decline of 0.4 percent, so this morning’s data surprised most analysts.
• The drop in interest rates in October, when rates fell below 4 percent for the first time since summer 2013, appears to have had a larger-than-expected impact on sales.

September sales were revised upward, meaning it was a better month for sales than initially thought

• September’s existing home sales were revised upward from 5.17 million units (SAAR) to 5.18 million units (SAAR).
• Initial data for September from the National Association of Realtors suggested that existing home sales had increased by 2.4 percent. The revised data suggest they increased 2.6 percent.
• The stronger-than-expected data and upward revisions suggest that the homeownership rate may be creeping upward, after declining steadily since 2005.

Sales have increased (almost) continually since March

• With the exception of an unexpected drop in August, seasonally-adjusted sales have increased in every month since March. Sales are now 14.6 percent above their March level.
• This year registered the second-largest March-to-October (spring-to-fall) bump on record. The only larger such jump was in 2009, during the early months of the housing recovery when sales were just starting to pick up from their recession-era lows and were boosted by home buyer tax credits.

Despite strength in most of the country, sales dropped sharply in the West

• Sales increased in the Midwest, South and Northeast, but fell in the West.
• Since 1999, the West has bucked the national trend only 25 percent of the time. By contrast, existing home sales in the Midwest, South and Northeast have moved together 75 percent of the time.

The median sales prices of existing homes sold in October was $211,000, up 1.3 percent from September

• The median seasonally-adjusted sales price of existing homes increased 1.3 percent to $211,700—roughly in line with our forecast of $211,000.
• Prices increased most in the West—up 3.6 percent to $295,700—where the sales volume dropped off the most.
• The median existing home sold in the West is now about 40 percent more expensive than the median existing home sold in the country as a whole. Prior to the recession, homes in the West were about 55 percent more expensive than homes nationwide.