September Case-Shiller: Home Prices Blow Past Pre-Recession Peaks

By Svenja Gudell on 29 Nov 2016

September Case-Shiller data revealed a national housing market that has – finally – exceeded it’s pre-recession peaks and continues to accelerate, growing slightly faster than in prior months and largely in line with our expectations.

On an annual basis, September Case-Shiller data showed the U.S. national index up 5.5 percent from September 2015 through September 2016, up from 5.3 percent annual growth initially reported in August. According to a statement from S&P Dow Jones, which publishes the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the national home price index is now 0.1 percent above its July 2006 peak level. In other words, U.S. home prices as measured by the Case-Shiller national index have never been higher.

What’s more, growth is accelerating from month-to-month, reaching very high levels. Seasonally adjusted prices in the national index were up 0.8 percent in September from August, up from initially reported monthly growth of 0.6 percent in August. Sustained growth at that pace would put annual U.S. home price growth at more than 10 percent per year, levels last experienced during the height of the housing boom and the earliest years of the recovery.

Seasonally adjusted home prices in the 10- and 20-city composite indices rose 0.2 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively, in September from August. Year-over-year, the 10-city index was up 4.3 percent and the 20-city index was up 5.1 percent.

Below are Zillow’s forecasts of September Case-Shiller data, along with the actual September Case-Shiller numbers released today.

The U.S. National Case-Shiller home price index has essentially re-gained all losses sustained during the housing bust and is at, above or very near peak levels in many markets. But it isn’t smart to confuse this full recovery in housing prices with a full recovery in the housing market overall. Big imbalances still exist between renters and homeowners, and home buyers and home sellers, and there’s still a long way to go before the market reaches full equilibrium. But there are promising signs on the horizon. Rental growth is slowing down, and coupled with rising incomes, 2017 looks to be the year in which the trend of worsening rental affordability reverses. Inadequate supply of homes available to buy – especially at the entry-level end of the market – remains a huge problem. But it has to improve eventually. And in the meantime, buyers are still out there in droves despite the headwinds – especially younger buyers that will form the backbone of the housing market for years to come.