September Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Speeds Up

By Svenja Gudell on 24 Nov 2015

Today, the September S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed that the 10- and 20-City Composites rose 5 percent and 5.5 percent, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. Year-over-year growth in the 10-city index was up from 4.7 percent in August. Annual growth in the 20-city index was also up slightly from July’s 5.1 percent pace. The U.S. National Index rose 4.9 percent year-over-year, up from 4.6 percent in August.

The September Case-Shiller data were in line with last month’s Zillow’s forecasts, and showed a similar trend to more recent October Zillow Home Value Index data, which also indicate acceleration in home value growth over the past few months.

On a seasonally adjusted (SA) monthly basis, the 10- and 20-City Composites were both up 0.6 percent from August. The National Index was up 0.8 percent month-over-month (SA). The table below shows how Zillow’s forecast compared with the actual numbers.

“The Case-Shiller indices continued to grow at a consistent pace as the summer came to a close, and in line with more recent data that continues to show stabilization, if not quite normalization, in the U.S. housing market,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Svenja Gudell. “Sellers may be singing the praises of the season, but buyers could be left grumbling ‘Bah Humbug’ because the market is acting more Grinch-like for renters and others looking to buy a home right now. Rising home values and rents alike can make saving a suitable down payment very difficult, and continued shortages in for-sale homes means even qualified buyers with decent savings are often left out in the cold. And the threat of rising interest rates may soon put a damper on housing affordability, especially in hotter, coastal markets.”

Our forecasting model incorporates previous data points of the Case-Shiller series, as well as Zillow Home Value Index data and national foreclosure resales. To see how Zillow’s forecast of the August Case-Shiller indices compared, see our research brief from last month.