Zillow Forecast: February Case-Shiller Composite-20 Expected to Show 3.4% Decline from One Year Ago
On Tuesday, April 24th, the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for February will be released. Zillow predicts that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted [NSA]) will decline by 3.4 percent on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) will decline by 3.5 percent on a year-over-year basis. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from January to February will be -0.1 percent and -0.2 percent for the 20 and 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA), respectively. All forecasts are shown in the table below and are based on a model incorporating the previous data points of the Case-Shiller series and the March Zillow Home Value Index data, and national foreclosure re-sales.
While home values are expected to fall further in 2012, home sales are expected to pick up pace in 2012 stabilizing home prices across the nation as the year goes on. The chart below shows the Case-Shiller 20-City Composite HPI (NSA). To give some idea of future projections, we’ve extended the 20-City HPI with the Zillow forecast for year-over-year growth in the national Case-Shiller HPI (since the 20-City and national HPIs track each other very closely).
Note, Zillow’s Q1 2012 data will be released on April 25th – a full month ahead of Case-Shiller data.
