Zillow Forecast: September Case-Shiller Composite-20 Expected to Show 3% Increase from One Year Ago
On Tuesday November 27th, the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for September will be released. Zillow predicts that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted [NSA]) will be up by 3 percent on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) will be up 2.3 percent on a year-over-year basis. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from August to September will be 0.4 percent for the 20-City Composite, as well as for the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA). All forecasts are shown in the table below and are based on a model incorporating the previous data points of the Case-Shiller series, the September Zillow Home Value Index data and national foreclosure re-sales.
Home values have shown healthy rates of appreciation in many markets across the nation. Zillow released October data today, showing 12 consecutive months of home value appreciation and we expect this positive trend to be reflected in next week’s release of the September Case-Shiller numbers, as well as the Case-Shiller October data, which won’t be available for over a month.
In the last months of 2012, monthly changes in the Case-Shiller indices are expected to moderate, which will be largely a function of declining overall monthly sales volume, which will increase the percentage of foreclosure re-sales in the transactional mix being tracked by Case-Shiller.
The chart below shows the Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (NSA) forecasted five years into the future. We’ve extended the 20-City Index with the Zillow forecast for year-over-year growth in the national Case-Shiller Home Price Index (since the 20-City and national indices track each other very closely). Our Case-Shiller National forecast is based on the September 2012 Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, administered by Pulsenomics, which surveys more than 100 professional forecasters quarterly to forecast the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for the next five years. The survey results were released on Sept. 20 and show that forecasters are much more optimistic compared to prior surveys. See our results here. Zillow anticipates the Case-Shiller National Index to be up by 3 percent in December 2012 compared to December 2011. The next Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey will be released in December.
Zillow’s October 2012 data can be found here. The Zillow Home Value Index does not include foreclosure re-sales, and we expect it to increase 1.5 percent between October 2012 and October 2013.
