8 Reasons Why Fall Could Be a Housing Market ‘Sweet Spot’ in 2025

The busiest time of year for buying and selling homes is behind us, but for many shoppers and sellers, the coming months are a period of opportunity. If recent fall seasons offer a preview of what’s ahead, there’s likely to be less competition among buyers and more deals on homes that haven’t yet sold.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty out there, and some buyers are just waiting to see what happens,” says Zillow Senior Economist Kara Ng. “So if you’re able to buy, fall could be a sweet spot since you won’t be competing against the pool of buyers waiting on the sidelines.”

The downside to shopping in the fall is that buyers may find fewer new choices than if they had shopped months earlier, says Ng. Still, Zillow data shows there are more homes for sale now than in the past five years as we head into October and November, two months that usually mark the slowest period in real estate.

 With that background, here’s how the fall 2025 market is likely to shape up:

1. Buyers have more homes to choose from 

Zillow data shows the number of homes for sale is the highest it’s been since July of 2020, and that, for the past two years, the inventory of for-sale homes — both new listings and those that have lingered on the market — has been the highest in October. Coming out of a lackluster spring, when a lot of new listings didn’t find buyers, there’s a good chance the pattern will repeat this fall.

New listings in May were up 4.5% over the same period a year earlier, and the total number of homes listed for sale is up 20% from last year, offering buyers more options than at any time since July 2020.

“Home shopping season has been very soft this year,’’ says Ng. “This year, we peaked in February, March and April – that was the height of it. And now it’s going to slowly cool until we hit the end of the year, when it starts picking up again.”

2. More homes = more time to shop

The pace of decision-making is still far from leisurely, but fewer shoppers in the fall means buyers are likely to have more time to consider their options. For example, last year, it took 17 days longer for a typical U.S. seller to accept an offer on their home in November than if they sold six months earlier, in May.

“If you’re a buyer, you’re likely to have more time to decide on your options," Ng says. “You have time to really consider if that home is the right fit for you.”

3. Buyers can lock in their budgets

Mortgage rates have hovered around 6% to 7% for most of the past year. Barring some unfavorable economic news, rates are not expected to change much going into fall, Ng says. What’s likely to happen after that depends on the state of the economy.

The Federal Reserve Board — which is charged with controlling inflation — kept its key rate unchanged at its June meeting. (The key rate is important because it influences interest rates throughout the economy, including mortgage rates. When the Fed lowers or raises the key rate, mortgage rates tend to follow.) Half of the fed board’s 19 members predicted a half percentage point cut in 2025, while the remainder predicted no cuts for the rest of the year or a small one – about a quarter percentage point.

That’s disappointing news for buyers since higher rates mean higher monthly payments. But it also means more predictability for buyers who have their home-buying budgets locked in.

If mortgage rates do dip, buyers can save on their monthly payments — or boost their home-buying budget. But Ng says there are tradeoffs when rates drop, since lower rates tend to pull more buyers into the market. A surge of buyers means more competition, which could raise home prices, reduce choices and/or diminish buyers’ ability to negotiate price and other concessions.

4. Prices have flattened in many markets

In recent years, double-digit price growth meant buyers were constantly chasing the magic number they needed to hit their budgets for buying and down payments. This year’s sluggish market has kept prices in check, and Zillow economists are predicting a decline of 1.4% in home values nationally by the end of the year. 

Locally, Zillow’s Market Heat Index shows a mixed picture in terms of competition so values are increasing in some markets and dropping in others. Overall, though, slower appreciation and flattening home values nationally are giving buyers a much-needed break from the price run-ups of the past four years.

5. Sellers are still cutting prices

Last fall, price cuts were highest in July, August, September and October, and began to decline gradually in November. How that plays out this fall will depend in large part on broader economic trends, says Ng.

Nationally, the share of listings with a price cut in May climbed to 26%, and many sellers are sweetening deals with concessions such as covering closing costs or buying down mortgage interest rates for the first one to three years. 

Local markets have their own dynamic, so you can expect to see a range of differences depending on where you’re shopping. In Denver, for example, 38% of listings had price cuts in May, while in Syracuse, only 13% of sellers lowered their prices. Zillow data going back to August 2023 shows that the typical price cut is $10,000.

Even modest concessions can lower a monthly mortgage payment or reduce the cost of buying, so it’s worth talking with your agent about the dynamics of your local market to see whether concessions are common and whether your local market favors buyers or sellers.

6. The market is more balanced

As more sellers list their homes for sale, the advantage that sellers enjoyed nationally for the past few years has largely disappeared in favor of a neutral market that favors buyers and sellers equally. That trend is likely to continue through the rest of the year, Ng says.

Locally, there are still markets that strongly favor sellers and those where buyers have an edge. Sun Belt metros such as Austin, Tampa and parts of coastal Texas/Florida lean buyer-friendly, while much of the Northeast and West Coast metros remain seller markets.

Zillow data shows that sellers tend to have the edge in the spring and lose it in the fall, when a lot of potential buyers retrench for either the holidays or the next home shopping season. 

7. Buyers may be able to avoid bidding wars

These dreaded bidding wars, common the past few years, are super stressful and demoralizing if you’ve ever lost out on a home you hoped to buy. If you’re in a strong sellers’ market, bidding wars may be hard to avoid. But if you’re in a buyer’s market or a neutral one, you’re less likely to be up against multiple buyers angling for the same home. Regardless of the season, competing against fewer buyers makes bidding wars less likely.

8. Buyers may have more negotiating power

Sellers who listed in April, May or June and haven’t sold by summer often lower prices, hoping for a fall sale. If you’re a buyer who is hoping to strike a deal, look for homes that have been on the market for a while and that may already have lowered prices to entice buyers. You may find a motivated seller who is more willing to negotiate.   

The right time to buy?

Affordability challenges created by higher interest rates and escalating home prices have resulted in pent-up demand by potential buyers who are waiting for the right time to buy, Ng says. If interest rates drop unexpectedly, some of that demand is likely to get unleashed since previous rate drops have caused a surge in buyers.  

“An unexpected drop in interest rates is great for affordability,’’ says Ng, “but then it opens up a wider pool of buyers, so you lose some of the advantages. It's a ‘would you rather’ game? Would you rather have favorable conditions and compete with a whole bunch of other people, or maybe slightly less favorable conditions where you can have less competition and really find the home that fits you?”

As always, there’s no one right time to buy. Given the pace of price cuts and slower sales speeds, fall could be an opportune time for buyers who know what they want, can afford to buy at current prices and interest rates, and appreciate a little elbow room at the negotiating table, says Ng. If that sounds like you, this could be your sweet spot.

Just be sure to have your budget figured out, and your financing lined up so you can focus your search and act quickly if you find a home you love.