April Market Report: Markets Shift in Some Buyers’ Favor

Uncertainty continues to define major markets in the U.S. — housing and otherwise. That uncertainty, fueled by unpredictable tariff policy, is jostling mortgage rates, stoking inflation fears, and sapping liquid assets.

Despite mortgage rates reaching a 2025 low in March, home price growth paused and inventory swelled during what’s typically one of the most competitive months of the year. 

“More sellers came out to test their luck as rates ticked down in March, but home sales didn’t keep up. Buyers, especially first-timers without equity to pour into their down payment, continue to struggle with affordability and now face even higher levels of uncertainty,” says Zillow Chief Economist Skylar Olsen. “A turbulent economy likely weighs more heavily on first-time buyers than more firmly established sellers.”

Sellers begin to bridge the gap

While current conditions don’t favor first-time buyers, the tides are turning for clients who can clear the financial hurdles. Sellers cut prices at record rates to help bridge the gap to those buyers. Twenty-four percent of for-sale listings received a price cut in March, the highest share for any March since at least 2018.

Inventory is up 19% YoY. The 1.15 million homes that spent time on the market last month were the most for any March since 2020. U.S. homes that sold in March typically went pending in 17 days. That’s four more than in 2024 and just four days less compared to pre-pandemic norms.

And some homes are lingering on the market. The median age of all inventory was 51 days, longer than in any March since 2020.

The culmination of these metrics means more time and more bargaining power for buyers. “Home buying is so often about access to that neighborhood, that vision. With much less competition and rising inventory, access to that vision is easier. But less competition also means softer price forecasts, so buyers should make sure the home is something that's going to work for them for several years,” Olsen says. “Buying now isn’t likely to become a quick equity play like it may have in 2021.”

Zillow now forecasts negative YoY home value growth 

This is the flip side of increased for-sale supply and cautious demand. Rate lock continues to weaken over time. And mortgage rates aren’t the only factor people consider before a move; three-quarters of sellers are motivated by life events like a growing family or new job.

Zillow economists now project that U.S. home prices will fall 1.7% between March 2025 and March 2026. This revision has ticked down each month since January, when the 12-month national home price forecast was +2.9%.

The last time home prices were negative YoY was June 2023, but it was only -0.2%, and it was only negative for that month. Prior to that, the last time home values were negative YoY was June 2012.

“In many markets, this is a significant shift, and one we haven’t seen in more than a decade,” says Olsen. “Including this context when you’re level-setting with seller clients can make those pricing conversations go more smoothly.”