July Case-Shiller Results and August Forecast: Summer Turning Point?
Annual home price growth continued to cool in July, but more-recent data suggest the market may have begun to turn over the summer.
- The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index® rose 3.2% year-over-year in July (non-seasonally adjusted), unchanged from June. Annual growth in the smaller 10- and 20-city indices was slower than what was reported in June.
- Among the 20 markets in the 20-city index, Phoenix (+5.8%), Las Vegas (+4.7%) and Charlotte (+4.6%) reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities.
Annual home price growth continued to cool in July, but more-recent data suggest the market may have begun to turn over the summer, showing modest acceleration in growth compared to earlier in the year.
The national Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 3.2% year-over-year in July, largely in line with expectations. The smaller 10- and 20-city composite indices grew more slowly, at 1.6% and 1.9% year-over-year, respectively. On a monthly (seasonally adjusted) basis, the 10-city index was slightly lower in July than it was in June, while the 20-city index was flat and the national index was up modestly.
| Index | Zillow Forecast, Released 8/27/19 | Actual Case-Shiller Indices, Released 9/24/19 |
Historical Median Absolute Error* |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
-0.2% | -0.01 | 0.2% |
| 10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
1.6% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| 20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
-0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
1.9% | 2.0% | 0.1% |
| U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA) |
0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
2.9% | 3.2% | 0.1% |
| *Calculation of Median Absolute Errors are based on Zillow’s forecasts dating to 2011. The national Case-Shiller forecasts began in 2014. | |||
The latest home sales and building data offer further proof that the recent bout of housing malaise may be nearing an end. August existing home sales, starts and permits all easily exceeded industry expectations and posted some of their strongest readings in years. This strength, teamed with steady home builder sentiment, growing home construction employment and still-low mortgage rates, show the housing market still has plenty of fight as summer turns to fall.
In the meantime, the August numbers as reported by Case-Shiller are expected to show continued slowing in the 10- and 20-city indices. Growth is expected to remain the same in the national index.
| Index | Actual July Case-Shiller Change |
Zillow’s Forecast for the Case-Shiller August Indices |
|---|---|---|
| 10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
-0.1% | -0.1% |
| 10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
1.6% | 1.3% |
| 20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
0.0% | -0.1% |
| 20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
2.0% | 1.8% |
| U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA) |
0.1% | 0.3% |
| U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
3.2% | 3.2% |
| *Calculation of Median Absolute Errors are based on Zillow’s forecasts dating to 2011. The national Case-Shiller forecasts began in 2014. | ||
Note: Case-Shiller and Case-Shiller Index are registered trademarks of CoreLogic Solutions, LLC. The statements herein are not endorsed by or provided in association or connection with CoreLogic, LLC.
