September Case-Shiller Results and October Forecast: Steady as She Goes
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index® rose 3.2% year-over-year in September (non-seasonally adjusted), up from 3.1% in August.
Written by Matthew Speakman on November 26, 2019
- The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index® rose 3.2% year-over-year in September (non-seasonally adjusted), up from 3.1% in August. Annual growth in the smaller 10-city index was unchanged from August, and was up slightly in the 20-city index (to 2.1%, from 2% in August).
- Phoenix (+6%), Charlotte (+4.6%) and Tampa (+4.5%) reported the highest year-over-year gains among markets in the 20-city index.
It has become clear that the housing market slowdown that has characterized much of 2019 is really much more of a stabilization than any kind of prolonged or damaging housing slump.
The national Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 3.2% year-over-year in September, slightly exceeding expectations. The smaller 10- and 20-city composite indices grew more slowly, at 1.5% and 2.1% year-over-year, respectively. On a monthly (seasonally adjusted) basis, the 10-city index rose by 0.2% in September from August, while the 20-city index was up 0.4% over the same period.
| Index | Zillow Forecast, Released 10/29/19 | Actual Case-Shiller Indices, nReleased 11/26/19 | Historical Median Absolute Error* |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-City Composite, nMonth-Over-Month (SA) | -0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 10-City Composite, nYear-Over-Year (NSA) | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| 20-City Composite, nMonth-Over-Month (SA) | 0% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| 20-City Composite, nYear-Over-Year (NSA) | 2% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| U.S. National nMonth-Over-Month (SA) | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| U.S. National nYear-Over-Year (NSA) | 3.1% | 3.2% | 0.1% |
| *Calculation of Median Absolute Errors are based on Zillow's forecasts dating to 2011. The national Case-Shiller forecasts began in 2014. |
For the third straight month, annual home price growth is near its long-term historic average, and after years of favoring sellers, market conditions are gradually becoming much more balanced. This return to a more steady-as-she-goes kind of market is likely to benefit both buyers and sellers in the longer-term. More balanced market conditions should encourage more buyers to enter the market. And would-be sellers might also be more inclined to list their homes, knowing that when they turn around to buy a home themselves conditions will be less frantic than in years past. This new dynamic would also hopefully result in more for-sale inventory, something the market desperately needs.
In the meantime, annual growth in October as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to stay steady in all three major indices. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the October S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, Dec. 31.
| Index | Actual September nCase-Shiller Change | Zillow's Forecast for the Case-Shiller October Indices |
|---|---|---|
| 10-City Composite, nMonth-Over-Month (SA) | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 10-City Composite, nYear-Over-Year (NSA) | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| 20-City Composite, nMonth-Over-Month (SA) | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| 20-City Composite, nYear-Over-Year (NSA) | 2.1% | 2.1% |
| U.S. National nMonth-Over-Month (SA) | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| U.S. National nYear-Over-Year (NSA) | 3.2% | 3.2% |
Note: Case-Shiller and Case-Shiller Index are registered trademarks of CoreLogic Solutions, LLC. The statements herein are not endorsed by or provided in association or connection with CoreLogic, LLC.
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