Amazon’s Exit From New York Most Likely to be Felt By Early Long Island Investors
Amazon’s announcement that it will not build a new headquarters in Long Island City is expected to impact not only the local housing market, but also D.C. and Nashville.
Amazon’s announcement Thursday that it will not build a new headquarters in Long Island City is expected to impact not only the housing market there, but also places like Arlington County, Virginia, and Nashville, where many of those jobs are likely to move.
The Washington D.C. metro area, named late last year along with Long Island City as the home of a new headquarters, already was expected to gain nearly 38,000 Amazon employees. A Zillow analysis projected that — even if 50,000 new Amazonians join the workforce there — rent growth would rise beyond the already-minimal expected gain by less than one percentage point. That’s thanks in part to a well-developed public transit system, deep labor market and responsive housing supply.
The impact would be smaller in places like Toronto and Boston, where Amazon has offices that could add some of those workers. In Nashville, though, where Amazon also is building out its workforce, 50,000 more workers would have meant a near tripling of rent growth. A smaller influx of employees would mean a smaller impact, but still likely larger than in some of the bigger metro areas where Amazon has offices. Interestingly, Nashville’s Elizabeth Park neighborhood – a roughly 30 minute walk from Amazon’s proposed Nashville Center of Excellence – was the most-loved Nashville neighborhood on Zillow in recent months according to a recent Zillow analysis.
The impact in Long Island City now is most likely to be felt by those who dove into real estate following Amazon’s HQ2 announcement in November. Median list price for condos in the area jumped from essentially flat year-over-year in August to nearly 10 percent higher in November and nearly 12 percent higher in December. Growth in year-over-year median condo rental price per square foot tripled from October to December.
For investors and hopeful locals who bought Long Island City real estate after Amazon announced it was coming there, the news is disheartening. Indeed, they are likely to see a near-term dip, but the longer-term outlook for New York City real estate is still good. New York continues to be an attractive area for jobs, and companies besides Amazon are still growing there. The city’s persistently sky-high rents are a testament to the Big Apple’s enduring popularity. But the experience also demonstrates how important it is to consider potential housing needs in any local economic development plans.