April 2021 Case-Shiller Results & Forecast: No Sign of Slowing
The forces that have propelled home price growth to new highs over the past year remain in place and are offering little evidence of abating.
- The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index® rose 14.6% year-over-year in April (non-seasonally adjusted), up from 13.3% in March.
- Annual growth was up from March in both the 20-city index (to 14.9%, from 13.4%) and 10-city index (to 14.4% from 12.9%).
- Phoenix (+22.3%), San Diego (21.6%) and Seattle (+20.2%) reported the highest year-over-year gains among markets in the 20-city index.
The forces that have propelled home price growth to new highs over the past year remain in place and are offering little evidence of abating.
The national Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 14.6% year-over-year in April. Annual growth in the smaller 20-city composite index exceeded the national pace (14.9%) and annual growth in the 10-city index (14.4%) almost matched national appreciation. The annual rate of growth was faster in April than in March in all three main indices. On a monthly (seasonally adjusted) basis, the national index was up 2.1% from March, while the 10- and 20-city indices were up 1.9% and 2.1% month-over-month, respectively.
| Zillow Forecast, Released 5/25/21 | Actual Case-Shiller Indices, Released 6/29/21 |
Historical Median Absolute Error* | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.7% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| 10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
13.9% | 14.4% | 0.2% |
| 20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.9% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| 20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
14.3% | 14.9% | 0.1% |
| U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA) |
2.1% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
14.3% | 14.6% | 0.1% |
| *Calculation of Median Absolute Errors are based on Zillow’s forecasts dating to 2011. The national Case-Shiller forecasts began in 2014. | |||
Mortgage rates remain near historic lows, a demographic wave of households aging into prime homeownership years continues to swell, and despite showing some signs of bottoming, the number of available homes for sale remains historically small, particularly given the elevated demand for housing. Prices have skyrocketed as a result, and price growth continues to set new record highs. What’s more, despite sharply rising prices, demand for homes remains very strong. Bidding wars for the relatively few houses available remain common and homes are going under contract at an increasingly fast pace. Inventory upticks in recent weeks suggest that a respite from these red-hot market conditions may be starting to form. But a return to a balanced market remains a long way off, and there are few, if any, signs that home price appreciation will start to subside anytime soon.
Monthly and annual growth in May as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to accelerate from April and May 2020 in all three main indices. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the May S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, July 27.
| Index | Actual April Case-Shiller Change |
Zillow’s Forecast for the Case-Shiller April Indices |
|---|---|---|
| 10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.4% | 1.6% |
| 10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
14.4% | 16.1% |
| 20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.6% | 1.7% |
| 20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
14.9% | 16.5% |
| U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.6% | 1.7% |
| U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
14.6% | 16.2% |
Note: Case-Shiller and Case-Shiller Index are registered trademarks of CoreLogic Solutions, LLC. The statements herein are not endorsed by or provided in association or connection with CoreLogic, LLC.
