April Case-Shiller Forecast: Tapping on the Brakes

Home prices will finally catch a break in April, when Zillow’s April Case-Shiller forecast expects growth of 5.6 percent in the national index, slightly slower than its 5.8 percent year-over-year climb in March. The seasonally adjusted month-over-month pace also is forecast to drop, to 0.2 percent in April following a 0.3 percent climb in March.

Annual growth in the smaller 10- and 20-city indices -- which was flat in March -- is expected to accelerate slightly: The 10-city forecast is for a 5.4 percent gain in annual growth for April, following 5.2 percent annual growth in March. The 20-city index is projected to gain 6.1 percent in April, below its 5.9 percent annual gain in March.

The 10-city index is forecast to climb a seasonally adjusted 0.5 percent in April from March, following 0.9 percent monthly growth between February and March. Growth in the 20-city index is expected to slow on a seasonally adjusted, month-over-month basis, rising 0.6 percent in April after a 0.9 percent climb in March.

Zillow’s April Case-Shiller forecast is shown below. These forecasts are based on today’s March Case-Shiller data release and the April 2017 Zillow Home Value Index. The April S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices will not be officially released until Tuesday, June 27.

Results:

• A Decade Later, Home Values Return to Bubble-Era Peak
• Home Values Are Back, Except Where They're Not
• March Case-Shiller Results: Home Prices Reaching for the Sky