• April existing home sales fell 2.5 percent from March and 1.4 percent from a year ago, to 5.46 million units (SAAR), according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales fell compared to March in all four major regions.
• Inventory rose a promising 9.8 percent from March, to 1.8 million homes available, the highest level in almost a year (June 2017). Still, inventory remains down 6.3 percent from a year ago and has fallen year-over-year for 35 straight months.
• The median price of existing homes sold in April was $257,900, up 5.3 percent from a year ago and the 74th month in a row of annual price increases.

The existing home sales market is enduring a now roughly 18-month-long failure to launch, with sales volumes unable to meaningfully break past the 5.5 million sales plateau. But given the relatively strong economy and the huge pool of potential buyers out there — packed with millennials aging into their prime home buying years — it would seem there’s certainly capacity for a lot more sales. The only explanations are that many would-be buyers in this pool either are either unwilling to buy, or simply can’t. But research shows that millennials, in particular, do believe in the financial and social value of homeownership and do want to buy a home, so the will is certainly there. That places the burden increasingly on these would-be buyers’ inability to buy. Inventory has fallen on an annual basis for almost three straight years, especially among the kind of entry-level homes likely to be sought by first-time buyers, which makes it difficult to sell homes in large numbers. And the price of existing homes has been climbing for six straight years — but unlike prior years, mortgage interest rates are no longer falling, and instead have risen roughly 75 basis points since just the start of this year. There is some small hope on the inventory front — the number of homes available to buy has risen for three of the past four months when compared to the month prior, and new home inventory has shown some signs of breaking through. But the affordability problem remains incredibly challenging: Mortgage rates aren’t going to come down, prices aren’t going to fall in the face of intense demand, and income growth, while steady, is unlikely to meaningfully pick up any time soon. Declining inventory, deteriorating affordability, stagnant sales volumes and unmet demand look to be the hallmarks of the existing home market for some time to come.