Today, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed that the non-seasonally adjusted April 10- and 20-City Composite declined 2.2% and 1.9% on a year-over-year basis, in line with Zillow’s forecast released last week. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, both the 10- and 20-City Composites rose 0.7%  from March to April. The table below shows how our forecast compared with the actual numbers.

“Despite nervousness created by a recent weakening in job growth numbers and an uptick in European sovereign debt concerns, we’ve been able to keep the wheels on the wagon of a housing market recovery longer than we did in the prior two years, with Case-Shiller’s April numbers further confirming that home price stabilization remains on track,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries.

“Zillow’s May data indicates home values are up another half percent between April and May, the third consecutive month of appreciation, which we expect to translate into the fourth consecutive month for Case-Shiller when their May data is released next month,” Humphries added.

Our forecasting model incorporates previous data points of the Case-Shiller series, as well as Zillow Home Value Index data and national foreclosure re-sales. To see how Zillow’s forecast of the March Case-Shiller indices compared, see our blog post from last month.