Yesterday, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed that the non-seasonally adjusted February 10- and 20-City Composite declined 3.5% and 3.6% on a year-over-year basis, in line with Zillow’s forecast released last week. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the 10- and 20-City Composite rose 0.2% and 0.1% from January to February. The table below shows how our forecast compared with the actual numbers.

“February’s Case-Shiller indices tell more of the same story: Foreclosure re-sales continued to pull down home prices. Although sales were up in February, foreclosure re-sales still made up about one-fifth of all sales,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. “Looking forward, we think homes sales will continue to trend upward, which ultimately will result in a slower rate of home value depreciation. But any housing recovery will be dependent on job growth. Continued progress in this area is essential to keeping the housing recovery, such as it is, on track.”

Our forecasting model incorporates previous data points of the Case-Shiller series, as well as Zillow Home Value Index data and national foreclosure resales. To see how Zillow’s forecast of the January Case-Shiller indices compared, see our blog post from last month.