Today, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed that the non-seasonally adjusted July 10- and 20-City Composite rose 0.6% and 1.2% on a year-over-year basis, in line with Zillow’s forecast released last week. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the 10- and 20-City Composites both rose 0.4%  from June to July. The table below shows how our forecast compared with the actual numbers.

“July shows another strong month of appreciation for Case-Shiller albeit down slightly from June’s revised monthly pace and somewhat lower than our expectations. The indices have, however, still yielded a better annual comparison than last month, reflecting organic growth in the housing market, which further confirms what we’ve been seeing over the last few months in other data: the housing market is in recovery mode,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. “Given the more recent August Zillow Home Value Index was down slightly month-over-month, we anticipate Case-Shiller’s monthly appreciation to slow even more substantially in August.”

“While Case-Shiller’s monthly trends will get worse in the back half of this year, largely a function of declining overall monthly sales volumes which will increase the percentage of foreclosure re-sales included in transactions tracked by Case-Shiller, we do expect the 10- and 20- City indices to continue to show solid annualized growth through year end, added Humphries”

Our forecasting model incorporates previous data points of the Case-Shiller series, as well as Zillow Home Value Index data and national foreclosure re-sales. To see how Zillow’s forecast of the June Case-Shiller indices compared, see our blog post from last month.