August Case-Shiller Data Shows Modest Uptick in Home Price Growth

Today, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed that the August 10- and 20-City Composites rose 4.7 percent and 5.1 percent, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. Year-over-year growth in the 10-city index was up from 4.5 percent in July, and annual growth in the 20-city index was also up slightly from July’s 4.9 percent pace. The U.S. National Index rose 4.7 percent year-over-year, up from 4.6 percent in July. Today’s data were in line with Zillow’s forecasts, released last month.

On a seasonally adjusted (SA) monthly basis, the 10- and 20-City Composites were both up 0.1 percent from July. The National Index was up 0.4 percent month-over-month (SA). The table below shows how Zillow’s forecast compared with the actual numbers.

“Annual U.S. home value appreciation has stabilized and settled into a nice groove over the past few months, and this relative stability should continue into the foreseeable future,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Svenja Gudell. “Interestingly, a good portion of the overall home price growth we’re seeing, especially in cities, has been driven by strong growth in condominium values, which are currently appreciating more quickly than single-family homes. This is a sign of the times in terms of buyers’ preferences, as condos often represent a more affordable, more urban housing option that is particularly attractive to younger buyers.”

Our forecasting model incorporates previous data points of the Case-Shiller series, as well as Zillow Home Value Index data and national foreclosure resales. To see how Zillow’s forecast of the June Case-Shiller indices compared, see our research brief from last month.