Case-Shiller Forecast: Expect August's Data to Look a Lot Like July's

The July S&P/Case-Shiller (SPCS) data published today showed home prices dipping on a seasonally-adjusted monthly basis, with both the 10- and 20-city indices falling 0.2 percent from June to July.

On an annual basis, the 10-city index was up 4.5 percent from July 2014, while the 20-city index increased 5 percent over the past year. The U.S. National Index was up 4.7 percent year-over-year. We expect the August SPCS to show a second consecutive monthly decline in the 10-city index, down 0.1 percent from July to August, and the 20-city index to be flat over the same period (seasonally adjusted). The National Index is expected to grow 0.4 percent (seasonally adjusted) in August from July. We expect all three indices to show annual appreciation of less than 5 percent when August data is released next month.

All SPCS forecasts are shown in the table below. These forecasts are based on today’s July SPCS data release and the August 2015 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), released September 21. The SPCS Composite Home Price Indices for August will not be officially released until Tuesday, October 27.

According to the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), national home value appreciation is continuing to moderate, with annual appreciation of 4 percent or less over the past 7 months. In August, U.S. median home values rose 3.3 percent on an annual basis, but a handful of hot markets grew much more quickly. Denver and San Francisco experienced double-digit annual appreciation in home values, with Denver’s annual change in values topping 16 percent year-over-year. Three large markets saw slight home value declines in August from July: Washington, D.C., and Baltimore were both down 0.2 percent, while Cincinnati was down 0.1 percent over July. Nationally, year-over-year growth in rents continues to outpace annual home value growth, with the Zillow Rent Index up 3.8 percent annually in August.

The August Zillow Home Value Forecast calls for a 2.2 percent rise in home values through August 2016. Further details on our forecast of home values can be found here.

More on the differences between SPCS and ZHVI can be found here. Our commentary on recent revisions to the national S&P/Case-Shiller Index can be found here. To see how this month’s results compared to our forecast from last month, please click here.