The rental market is picking up steam as we head into the home stretch of 2026, while the for-sale market may be running out of it. 

Zillow’s forecast for rent growth accelerated 13% from last month, a sign that the rental market is gaining momentum. Zillow projects single-family rents to rise 2.1% in 2026, reaching a typical monthly rent of $2,300, while multifamily rents are expected to increase 1.8%. Several key markets have turned a corner, with San Francisco showing notable acceleration. Austin, Denver, Dallas, and Raleigh aren’t there yet — rents are still declining — but they’re trending toward year-over-year growth. That rental strength is being reinforced in part by continued weakness in the for-sale market, as affordability constraints keep would-be buyers on the sidelines and in rentals longer than they might otherwise choose.

Regarding sales volume, we entered 2026 with cautious optimism: not a return to normal, but a step in that direction. Modest sales growth, gradually improving inventory and home values holding steady after years of rapid appreciation was the general expectation.

That picture has evolved over the course of the year. Mortgage rates returned to an elevated level, providing little support for a demand-led sales recovery. The housing market continues to absorb an elevated stock of inventory, keeping a lid on price growth. Home values are projected to rise just 0.3% for the year. Inventory continues to rise faster than sales, dampening price growth and leaving buyers in most markets with more room to negotiate than in prior years.

Existing home sales are projected to reach 3.78 million in 2026, according to Zillow’s sales count nowcast, up 1.5% year over year. The full-year figure masks a lopsided story: a stronger first half is being offset by an expected decline in Q4, with sales growth turning negative in the fourth quarter, down 3.2% in Zillow’s count. Sales volume remains well below pre-pandemic norms.