August Case-Shiller: Pace of Home Price Growth Slowly Picks Up

August Case-Shiller data revealed a national housing market that is slowly picking up speed, growing slightly faster than in prior months but largely in line with our expectations.

Seasonally adjusted home prices in the 10- and 20-city composite indices rose 0.2 percent in August from July. Year-over-year, the 10-city index was up 4.3 percent and the 20-city index was up 5.1 percent. Seasonally adjusted prices in the larger, national index were up 0.6 percent in August from July. On an annual basis, August Case-Shiller data showed the U.S. national index up 5.3 percent from August 2015 through August 2016, up from 5 percent annual growth in July. According to a statement from S&P Dow Jones, which publishes the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the national home price index is just 0.1 percent below its July 2006 peak level.

Below are Zillow’s forecasts of August Case-Shiller data, along with the actual August Case-Shiller numbers released today.

Throughout 2016, the U.S. housing market has been pretty resilient in the face of a continued shortage of homes for sale, with home prices growing quickly, but fairly predictably. Demand is high and enthusiasm for homeownership remains strong, especially among all-important young, minority and would-be first-time buyers. Incomes have been rising strongly in the last couple of years, helping to keep home buying reasonably affordable in most places. Overall sales volumes are up from a year ago, and up big in the case of newly constructed homes. Still, the market can’t stay on this course forever, and continued inventory shortages are leading to intense competition, escalating prices and mounting buyer frustration, with the average home search over the past year taking more than four months. Sooner or later we’ll need to begin seeing a big comeback in inventory to help re-balance this market between sellers and buyers.