Rapid Reaction: August New Home Sales

New home sales ended the summer on a very weak note, and it’s time we stopped sugarcoating the truth with this data — the simple fact is that we are severely under-producing housing in this country, relative both to basic demographics and currently high demand from buyers. Inventory is stuck at roughly mid-1990s levels, but the country has grown by more than 60 million people since then. Buying conditions, in theory, are great right now: Jobs and incomes are growing, and rock-bottom mortgage interest rates are helping keep financing costs low, even for more expensive homes. What’s missing from the equation is a lack of homes actually available to buy at a price point that’s reasonable for most buyers, even with today’s bump in inventory. We’ve been hovering roughly at or below the 600,000 annual sales level for more than a year now, when the market could seemingly easily accommodate sales levels of 750,000 or even much more. While Hurricane Harvey likely held down sales in Texas, its adverse effect on August sales was probably pretty modest at around 6,000 units. It will be worth watching how new home construction and sales activity does or doesn’t pick up in the South in coming months after Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, especially given the region’s traditionally outsized role in the national new construction market. A surge in activity could set the tone for the rest of the country to follow; a lull will only mean the prolonged new home sales slump we’ve been enduring will continue.