Case-Shiller Forecast Calls for Similar Annual, Monthly Gains in October

The September S&P Case-Shiller (SPCS) data published today showed home prices rising on a seasonally-adjusted monthly basis, with month-over-month rises of 0.6 percent for both the 10- and 20- city indices and 0.8 percent for the national index.

The October Case-Shiller forecast calls for similar monthly increases of 0.4 percent for the 10- and 20-City Indices in October from September (seasonally adjusted). The national index is expected to gain another 0.8 percent in October from September. We expect the 10-City Index to grow 5 percent year-over-year, and the 20-City Index to grow 5.4 percent over the same period.  The national Index looks set to gain 5.1 percent since October 2014.

All SPCS forecasts are shown in the table below. These forecasts are based on today’s September SPCS data release and the October 2015 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), released November 20. The SPCS Composite Home Price Indices for October will not be officially released until Tuesday, December 29.

According to the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), U.S. median home values rose 4.3 percent year-over-year in October. Over the same period, rents grew at an annual pace of 4.5 percent. The pace of annual appreciation in home values has grown every month since April.

Among the 35 largest metro areas in the country, 24 experienced annual home ZHVI growth faster than the nation’s 4.3 percent yearly pace of appreciation. Home values grew by more than 10 percent per year in six of those large metro markets: Denver (16.2 percent), Dallas (15.2 percent), San Jose (13.3 percent), San Francisco (12.2 percent), Portland (11.4 percent) and Miami (10.3 percent). Two large metros, Washington, D.C. (-0.4 percent) and Baltimore (-1.2 percent), experienced annual declines in home values.

The Zillow Home Value Forecast calls for a 2.6 percent rise in home values through October 2016. Further details on our forecast of home values can be found here.