Today, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed that the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) March 10- and 20-City Composites rose 4.7 percent and 5 percent, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. The U.S. National Index rose 4.1 percent year-over-year. Today’s data were in line with Zillow’s forecasts, released last month.

On a seasonally adjusted (SA) monthly basis, the 10- and 20-City Composites were up 0.9 percent and 1 percent, respectively, from February to March. The National Index rose 0.1 percent month-over-month (SA). The table below shows how Zillow’s forecast compared with the actual numbers.

“Home price appreciation has settled into a nice groove over the past few months, and ought to remain there going forward. This is still more proof that the for-sale market, while certainly not yet fully healed, is continuing to return to normal,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. “But relative strength in one indicator shouldn’t be confused with full recovery. Inventory is very low and the housing market is still very much out of balance, particularly on the rental side, where rapid rent increases and tepid wage gains are contributing to a deepening rental affordability crisis. This will make it more difficult for current renters to save up and make the transition into homeownership, particularly for younger would-be buyers the market so sorely lacks and needs.”

Our forecasting model incorporates previous data points of the Case-Shiller series, as well as Zillow Home Value Index data and national foreclosure resales. To see how Zillow’s forecast of the February Case-Shiller indices compared, see our research brief from last month.

Our forecast for April calls for similar appreciation across the three main Case-Shiller indices.