Case-Shiller Continues to 'Come Back to Earth' in October

Today, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed that the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) October 10- and 20-City Composites rose 4.4 and 4.5 percent, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. The U.S. National Index rose 4.6 percent year-over-year. Today’s data were in line with Zillow’s forecasts, for both the 10- and 20-city Composites and the National Index.

On a seasonally adjusted (SA) monthly basis, the 10- and 20-City Composites were up 0.7 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively, from September to October. The National Index rose 0.8 percent month-over-month (SA). The table below shows how Zillow’s forecast compared with the actual numbers.

“Housing definitely came back to earth over the second half of 2014, and we welcome and expect to see more of the same as we look ahead at 2015. A slower-moving housing market is inherently more stable, more balanced between buyers and sellers and more sustainable over the long-term,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. “We’re ending 2014 on a good note, and this momentum will continue. As we prepare for New Year's and the next home shopping season, we expect soaring rents to entice more people to the relative stability of homeownership, particularly younger potential buyers. This surge in demand should be met by more inventory as more sellers look to realize recent gains in equity and more builders turn their attention to entry-level home construction.”

Our forecasting model incorporates previous data points of the Case-Shiller series, as well as Zillow Home Value Index data and national foreclosure resales. To see how Zillow’s forecast of the September Case-Shiller indices compared, see our research brief from last month.