Nationally, 1.9 million homes are projected to be literally underwater by the year 2100 if the oceans rise six feet. Thirty-nine percent are valued in the top third of homes in their metros, representing the potential loss of $597 billion in high-end real estate. A third (32 percent) are in the bottom tier of home values in their metros, amounting to a potential $123 billion loss for low-income homeowners.
While the damage caused by recent hurricanes is a devastating reminder of how quickly the weather can undo people’s lives and destroy their homes, the potential for damage from a slower-moving phenomenon could be even more destructive: Rising sea levels.
Building on our 2016 analysis of the impact a rising tide could have on U.S. homes, we looked again at how many homes might be underwater by the end of the century — and whether those homes are in the top, middle or bottom tier in their areas. We also calculated the share in urban, suburban and rural areas.
Nationally, 1.9 million homes[1] are projected to be literally underwater by the year 2100 if the oceans rise six feet – roughly midway between the high end of what the government (considered a conservative source) says is “very likely” (4.3 feet) and the possibility of an 8-foot or greater rise than “cannot be excluded.” That accounts for 1.8 percent of the country’s total housing stock with a value of $916 billion, up from $882 billion in 2016. (To be clear, sea levels are not expected to rise uniformly, but we chose a midpoint rather than differentiating sea level predictions for different coastal areas.)
Although 39 percent of homes projected to be underwater are valued in the top third of homes in their metros – representing the potential loss of $597 billion in high-end real estate over the course of a single lifetime –not all of the underwater homes would be waterfront mansions: A third (32 percent) are in the bottom tier of home values in their metros, amounting to a potential $123 billion loss.
While wealthier homeowners may have more to lose in dollars, this scenario could be especially catastrophic for owners of the lowest-valued homes, because lower-income Americans spend a disproportionately large share of their earnings on mortgage payments. For these homeowners in particular, to lose their homes would mean to watch much of their lifetime earnings and overall wealth disappear.
Many of the metro areas that stand to lose the most property are clustered in Florida and along the East Coast. In the Miami metro alone, the losses are projected to total $30 billion for the owners of lower-end homes, $46 billion for homes valued in the middle tier, and a whopping $140 billion for high-end homeowners. In Houston, nearly 24,000 homes could be lost, 31 percent of which are owned by lower-income homeowners.
Some cities already are sinking millions of dollars into defense systems against this impending high tide, including a massive pump system in Miami Beach and a 10-foot steel-and-concrete wall around lower Manhattan. While these measures can help protect the investments of city dwellers, property owners in areas without as much money and in some suburban and rural areas may bear the costs of climate change themselves.
In fact, a majority (1.1 million) of potentially underwater homes are located in suburban ZIP codes, amounting to $549 billion in potential lost value, compared to $243 billion in urban areas and $71 billion in rural zip codes. Top valued homes are particularly likely to be affected in rural and suburban areas, while bottom tier homes face slightly more risk in urban areas.
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Here are close-up looks at the potential impact on particularly at-risk cities:
[1] These estimates do not include properties that were constructed after 2015.
