Zillow: CPI Shelter Forecast, July 2026
August 3, 2026
Written by Treh Manhertz
Zillow forecasts 2.8% rent inflation, 3.2% OER inflation annually in July, as measured by the Consumer Price Index.
New shelter inflation numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics are scheduled to be released on Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 8:30 ET.
Key Takeaway
CPI housing inflation is expected to hold near its current pace through the remainder of 2026, with rent inflation forecast to finish the year around 2.9% and OER near 3.4%. June's rent reading showed slower growth than in the previous month, but still consistent with our elevated expectations. Shelter disinflation has effectively plateaued in the near-term.
New-lease prices have been growing at their fastest pace of 2025-2026, and though they are not accelerating, this has put a damper on the declines in measured housing inflation. Current trends suggest that by year-end, the annual rate of growth will be roughly equal between new-lease rents and CPI rents. Zillow Research sees shelter costs maintaining this higher level over the next year.
The Forecast
Period | Owners’ Equivalent Rent | Rent of Primary Residence | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month-over-month | Year-over-year | Month-over-month | Year-over-year | |||||
| Forecast | Actual | Forecast | Actual | Forecast | Actual | Forecast | Actual | |
| February 2026 | 0.18% | 0.22% | 3.14% | 3.19% | 0.19% | 0.13% | 2.74% | 2.68% |
| March 2026 | 0.21% | 0.28% | 3.02% | 3.10% | 0.17% | 0.19% | 2.55% | 2.56% |
| April 2026 | 0.44% | 0.53% | 3.20% | 3.30% | 0.39% | 0.55% | 2.63% | 2.79% |
| May 2026 | 0.25% | 0.29% | 3.27% | 3.32% | 0.20% | 0.36% | 2.76% | 2.92% |
| June 2026 | 0.27% | 0.24% | 3.28% | 3.25% | 0.26% | 0.15% | 2.96% | 2.84% |
| July 2026 | 0.27% | 0.26% | 3.25% | 3.23% | 0.22% | 0.26% | 2.82% | 2.86% |
| + + + | + + + | + + + | + + + | + + + | + + + | + + + | + + + | + + + |
| December 2026 | 0.24% | -- | 3.36% | -- | 0.20% | -- | 2.88% | -- |
Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER)
Monthly outlook: Owner's Equivalent Rent, which measures what homeowners would theoretically pay to rent their own homes, is projected to have increased 0.27% in July 2026 (95% confidence interval: 0.14% - 0.40%). This would bring the annual increase in the index to 3.25%. We expect the monthly growth to trend toward a 0.24% pace over the year.
Annual outlook: We forecast OER to rise 3.36% over 2026, keeping pace with the 2025 increase of 3.36%.
Rent of Primary Residence
Monthly outlook: Rent of Primary Residence, which tracks rent payments, is projected to have increased 0.26% in July 2026 (95% confidence interval: 0.07% - 0.36%). This would bring the annual increase in the index to 2.82%. We expect the monthly growth to trend toward a 0.20% pace over the year.
Annual outlook: We forecast the Rent of Primary Residence index to rise 2.88% over 2026, a slight decrease from the 2025 increase of 2.92%.
Market Rents
Single-family: Zillow’s expectations for on-market rent growth for single-family units held steady: Single-family rents are expected to end 2026 uprise 3.1% year-over-year in 2026.
Multifamily: Zillow’s expectations for on-market rent growth for apartments held steady: Multifamily rents are expected to end 2026 uprise to 2.0% year-over-year in 2026.
Methodology
These forecasts are based on predictions from a model that makes explicit the relationship between on market rents (measured by the Zillow’s Observed Rent Index) and the shelter components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
The model incorporates:
- Expected on-market rent growth (Zillow’s Observed Rent Forecast, ZORF)
- Assumptions about how landlords adjust rents at lease renewal
- Renter mobility rates, which determine what share of tenants face a market rent increase.
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