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Zillow: CPI Shelter Forecast, June 2026

Zillow forecasts 3.0% rent inflation, 3.3% OER inflation annually in June, as measured by the Consumer Price Index.

Written by Treh Manhertz on July 7, 2026

New shelter inflation numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 8:30 ET.

Key Takeaway

CPI housing inflation is expected to hold near its current pace through the remainder of 2026, with rent inflation forecast to finish the year around 3.1% and OER near 3.4%. May's rent reading came in firmer than expected, reinforcing the upward revision from April's market rent spike and confirming that shelter disinflation has stalled at a higher plateau than previously projected.

Firmer spring new-lease prices have slowed the descent in measured housing inflation. Zillow Research sees shelter costs maintaining this higher level rather than re-accelerating. The rental vacancy rate has largely normalized, so renters aren’t so forced to accept high posted rents and large rent hikes.

Shelter components of the CPI continue to rise at a faster pace than on-market rents, reflecting softer new lease pricing alongside hikes for renewing and longer-term tenants.

The Forecast

Period	Owners’ Equivalent Rent	Rent of Primary Residence
Month-over-month	Year-over-year	Month-over-month	Year-over-year
Forecast	Actual	Forecast	Actual	Forecast	Actual	Forecast	Actual
January 2026	0.26%	0.22%	3.29%	3.26%	0.21%	0.25%	2.78%	2.84%
February 2026	0.18%	0.22%	3.14%	3.19%	0.19%	0.13%	2.74%	2.68%
March 2026	0.21%	0.28%	3.02%	3.10%	0.17%	0.19%	2.55%	2.56%
April 2026	0.44%	0.53%	3.20%	3.30%	0.39%	0.55%	2.63%	2.79%
May 2026	0.25%	0.29%	3.27%	3.32%	0.20%	0.36%	2.76%	2.92%
June 2026	0.27%	--	3.28%	--	0.26%	--	2.96%	--
+ + +	+ + +	+ + +	+ + +	+ + +	+ + +	+ + +	+ + +	+ + +
December 2026	0.24%	--	3.32%	--	0.21%	--	2.83%	--

Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER)

Monthly outlook: Owner's Equivalent Rent, which measures what homeowners would theoretically pay to rent their own homes, is projected to have increased 0.27% in June 2026 (95% confidence interval: 0.14% - 0.40%). This would bring the annual increase in the index to 3.28%. We expect the monthly growth to trend toward a 0.24% pace over the year.

Annual outlook: We forecast OER to rise 3.40% over 2026, keeping pace with the 2025 increase of 3.36%.

Rent of Primary Residence

Monthly outlook: Rent of Primary Residence, which tracks rent payments, is projected to have increased 0.26% in June 2026 (95% confidence interval: 0.11% - 0.41%). This would bring the annual increase in the index to 2.96%. We expect the monthly growth to trend toward a 0.22% pace over the year.

Annual outlook: We forecast the Rent of Primary Residence index to rise 3.13% over 2026, a slight increase from the 2025 increase of 2.92%.

Market Rents

Single-family: Zillow’s expectations for on-market rent growth for single-family units held steady: Single-family rents are expected to rise 3.1% year-over-year in 2026.

Multifamily: Zillow’s expectations for on-market rent growth for apartments held steady: Multifamily rents are expected to rise to 2.0% year-over-year in 2026.

Methodology

These forecasts are based on predictions from a model that makes explicit the relationship between on market rents (measured by the Zillow’s Observed Rent Index) and the shelter components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

The model incorporates:

Expected on-market rent growth (Zillow’s Observed Rent Forecast, ZORF)
Assumptions about how landlords adjust rents at lease renewal
Renter mobility rates, which determine what share of tenants face a market rent increase.