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Zillow: CPI Shelter Forecast, October 2026

Zillow forecasts 2.8% rent inflation, 3.3% OER inflation annually in October, as measured by the Consumer Price Index.

October 27, 2026

New shelter inflation numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics are scheduled to be released on Friday, November 10, 2026 at 8:30 ET.

Key Takeaway

CPI housing inflation is expected to stay elevated through the end of the year and into 2027. We currently forecast annual rent inflation to finish 2026 up around 3.1% and OER up near 3.4%. September’s reading on Owners’ Equivalent rates showed growth at the upper end of expectations, but this is unlikely to be the start of a great rise. Shelter disinflation has effectively plateaued in the near-term.

New-lease rents have been growing at their fastest pace of 2025-2026, putting a damper on the declines in measured housing inflation. Forecasts for on-market rents have been revised higher for the past few months. Current trends suggest that by year-end, the annual rate of growth will be roughly equal between new-lease rents and CPI rents, keeping a floor under inflation.

The Forecast

Period	Owners’ Equivalent Rent				Rent of Primary Residence
	Month-over-month		Year-over-year		Month-over-month		Year-over-year
	Forecast	Actual	Forecast	Actual	Forecast	Actual	Forecast	Actual
May 2026	0.25%	0.29%	3.27%	3.32%	0.20%	0.36%	2.76%	2.92%
June 2026	0.27%	0.24%	3.28%	3.25%	0.26%	0.15%	2.96%	2.84%
July 2026	0.27%	0.26%	3.25%	3.23%	0.22%	0.26%	2.82%	2.86%
August 2026	0.26%	0.19%	3.16%	3.08%	0.27%	0.17%	2.85%	2.75%
September 2026	0.22%	0.35%	3.15%	3.28%	0.17%	0.25%	2.70%	2.78%
October 2026	0.27%	--	3.33%	--	0.23%	--	2.82%	--
+ + +	+ + +	+ + +	+ + +	+ + +	+ + +	+ + +	+ + +	+ + +
December 2026	0.27%	--	3.44%	--	0.27%	--	3.06%	--
+ + +	+ + +	+ + +	+ + +	+ + +	+ + +	+ + +	+ + +	+ + +
October 2027	0.24%	--	3.12%	--	0.21%	--	2.71%	--

Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER)

Monthly outlook: Owner's Equivalent Rent, which measures what homeowners would theoretically pay to rent their own homes, is projected to have increased 0.27% in October 2026 (95% interval 0.14% – 0.39%). This would bring the annual increase in the index to 3.33%. We expect the monthly growth to trend toward a 0.24% pace over the coming year.

Annual outlook: We forecast OER to rise 3.44% over 2026, slightly exceeding the 2025 increase of 3.36%.

Rent of Primary Residence

Monthly outlook: Rent of Primary Residence, which tracks rent payments, is projected to have increased 0.23% in October 2026 (95% confidence interval: 0.08% - 0.37%). This would bring the annual increase in the index to 2.82%. We expect the monthly growth to trend toward a 0.27% pace over the coming year.

Annual outlook: We forecast the Rent of Primary Residence index to rise 3.06% over 2026, slightly exceeding the 2025 increase of 2.92%.

Market Rents

Single-family: Zillow’s expectations for on-market rent growth for single-family units was revised up: Single-family rents are expected to rise 3.3% year-over-year in 2026.

Multifamily: Zillow’s expectations for on-market rent growth for apartments was revised up: Multifamily rents are expected to rise 2.5% year-over-year in 2026.

Methodology

These forecasts are based on predictions from a model that makes explicit the relationship between on market rents (measured by the Zillow’s Observed Rent Index) and the shelter components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

The model incorporates:

Expected on-market rent growth (Zillow’s Observed Rent Forecast, ZORF)
Assumptions about how landlords adjust rents at lease renewal
Renter mobility rates, which determine what share of tenants face a market rent increase.