3 min read

Zillow: CPI Shelter Forecast, September 2026

Zillow forecasts 2.7% rent inflation, 3.1% OER inflation annually in September, as measured by the Consumer Price Index.

Written by Treh Manhertz on October 1, 2026

New shelter inflation numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics are scheduled to be released on Friday, October 14, 2026 at 8:30 ET.

Key Takeaway

Despite the most recent low print, CPI housing inflation is expected to stay at or slightly above current rates into the end of the year. We currently forecast annual rent inflation to finish 2026 around 2.9% and OER near 3.2%. August's rent reading showed growth at the lower end of expectations, but this is unlikely to persist. Shelter disinflation has effectively plateaued in the near-term.

New-lease rents have been growing at their fastest pace of 2025-2026, putting a damper on the declines in measured housing inflation. Forecasts for on-market rents have been revised higher for the past few months. Current trends suggest that by year-end, the annual rate of growth will be roughly equal between new-lease rents and CPI rents, keeping a floor under inflation.

The Forecast

Period	OER MoM Forecast	OER MoM Actual	OER YoY Forecast	OER YoY Actual	Rent MoM Forecast	Rent MoM Actual	Rent YoY Forecast	Rent YoY Actual
April 2026	0.44%	0.53%	3.20%	3.30%	0.39%	0.55%	2.63%	2.79%
May 2026	0.25%	0.29%	3.27%	3.32%	0.20%	0.36%	2.76%	2.92%
June 2026	0.27%	0.24%	3.28%	3.25%	0.26%	0.15%	2.96%	2.84%
July 2026	0.27%	0.26%	3.25%	3.23%	0.22%	0.26%	2.82%	2.86%
August 2026	0.26%	0.19%	3.16%	3.08%	0.27%	0.17%	2.85%	2.75%
September 2026	0.22%	--	3.15%	--	0.17%	--	2.70%	--
+ + +	+ + +	+ + +	+ + +	+ + +	+ + +	+ + +	+ + +	+ + +
December 2026	0.24%	--	3.21%	--	0.24%	--	2.87%	--
+ + +	+ + +	+ + +	+ + +	+ + +	+ + +	+ + +	+ + +	+ + +
September 2027	0.20%	--	2.68%	--	0.17%	--	2.27%	--

Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER)

Monthly outlook: Owner's Equivalent Rent, which measures what homeowners would theoretically pay to rent their own homes, is projected to have increased 0.22% in September 2026 (95% confidence interval: 0.09% - 0.35%). This would bring the annual increase in the index to 3.15%. We expect the monthly growth to trend toward a 0.20% pace over the coming year.

Annual outlook: We forecast OER to rise 3.21% over 2026, roughly keeping pace with the 2025 increase of 3.36%.

Rent of Primary Residence

Monthly outlook: Rent of Primary Residence, which tracks rent payments, is projected to have increased 0.17% in August 2026 (95% confidence interval: 0.02% - 0.32%). This would bring the annual increase in the index to 2.70%. We expect the monthly growth to trend toward a 0.17% pace over the coming year.

Annual outlook: We forecast the Rent of Primary Residence index to rise 2.87% over 2026, roughly keeping pace with the 2025 increase of 2.92%.

Market Rents

Single-family: Zillow’s expectations for on-market rent growth for single-family units was revised up: Single-family rents are expected to rise 3.1% year-over-year in 2026.

Multifamily: Zillow’s expectations for on-market rent growth for apartments was revised up: Multifamily rents are expected to rise 2.2% year-over-year in 2026.

Methodology

These forecasts are based on predictions from a model that makes explicit the relationship between on market rents (measured by the Zillow’s Observed Rent Index) and the shelter components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

The model incorporates:

Expected on-market rent growth (Zillow’s Observed Rent Forecast, ZORF)
Assumptions about how landlords adjust rents at lease renewal
Renter mobility rates, which determine what share of tenants face a market rent increase.