December 2015 Home Sales Forecast: Existing Up, New Down

• Zillow expects existing home sales to increase 5.6 percent to 5.03 million units (SAAR) in December, after two months of declining sales.
• Zillow expects a 3.2 percent drop in new home sales, to 474,000 units (SAAR).
• Despite a strong start to the year, new home sales trended largely downward in 2015.

Sales of existing homes should rebound in December after a sharp November decline, while new home sales look set to retreat after an unexpectedly strong November.

Existing home sales dropped sharply in November, potentially due to regulatory changes which may have delayed the closing of some purchases. We expect home sales to rebound in December, although not to the levels observed this past summer, increasing 5.6 percent month-over-month to 5.03 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) (figure 1). This would leave existing home sales up 1.5 percent over the year.

For new homes, we expect sales to retreat 3.2 percent from November, falling to 474,000 units (SAAR) (figure 2), which would still leave new home sales 5.6 percent higher than a year earlier. Despite a strong start to 2015, new home sales have trended downward since February and, by early 2016, we expect they will be only marginally higher than the year before (table 1).