December 2022 Case-Shiller Results & Forecast: Steady Decline
Home prices continued to cool off at the end of 2022.
- The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index® rose 5.8% year-over-year in December (non-seasonally adjusted), down from 7.6% in November.
- Annual growth was lower in December compared to November in both the 20-city index (to 4.6% from 6.8%) and the 10-city index (to 4.4% from 6.3%).
- Annual growth was slower in December than November in all markets included in the 20-city index.
Home prices fell again in December, but levels are still higher than a year ago. Buyers and sellers ended the year on a discouraging note – with sales declining as mortgage rates soared, new listings sputtering out, and active inventory pooling up as homes are spending longer on the market. January brought about some new energy to the market as mortgage rates drifted down, boosting buyer demand, enough to possibly slow the cooldown in prices in the beginning of the year. But as rates are right back up in February, it’s likely that any momentum in this market will be short lived and affordability challenges will remain key to the direction and speed the market moves in the coming months.
The national Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 5.8% year-over-year in December, down from the rate set in November. Annual appreciation slowed in both the 10- and 20-city (non-seasonally adjusted) indices. The annual gain in the 10-city index fell from 6.3% in November to 4.4% in December and for the 20-city composite index from 6.8% to 4.6%. From November to December the national index (seasonally adjusted) dropped to -0.3%, while the 10- and 20-city indices slowed to -0.4% and -0.5%, respectively.
| ZILLOW FORECAST, RELEASED 1/31/23 |
ACTUAL CASE-SHILLER INDICES, RELEASED 2/28/23 |
|
| 10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
0.2% | -0.4% |
| 10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
5.3% | 4.4% |
| 20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
0.2% | -0.5% |
| 20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
5.6% | 4.6% |
| U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA) |
0.0% | -0.3% |
| U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
6.4% | 5.8% |
Annual home price growth as reported by Case-Shiller are expected to decelerate in all three indices. Monthly appreciation in January is expected to accelerate in all three indices. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the January S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, March 28.
| ACTUAL DECEMBER CASE-SHILLER CHANGE |
ZILLOW’S FORECAST FOR THE CASE-SHILLER JANUARY INDICES |
|
| 10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
-0.4% | -0.1% |
| 10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
4.4% | 2.7% |
| 20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
-0.5% | 0.0% |
| 20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
4.6% | 2.8% |
| U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA) |
-0.3% | -0.2% |
| U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
5.8% | 3.7% |
Note: Case-Shiller and Case-Shiller Index are registered trademarks of CoreLogic Solutions, LLC. The statements herein are not endorsed by or provided in association or connection with CoreLogic, LLC.
