December Case-Shiller: Steady As She Goes

This morning, all three of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed annual home price growth above 5 percent in December. The December Case-Shiller indices grew at a pace very similar to that recorded in November.

The 20-City Composite index rose 5.7 percent from December 2014 through December 2015. The 10-City Composite and National Case-Shiller indices grew at 5.1 and 5.4 percent, respectively, in November.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the 10- and 20-City indices were up 0.7 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively, in December from November. The national index grew 0.8 percent from November (seasonally adjusted). Monthly and annual December Case-Shiller results were in line with Zillow’s forecasts published in January.

Below are Zillow’s forecasts of December Case-Shiller data, released in January, along with the actual November Case-Shiller numbers released today.

There are a lot of economic forces at work behind the scenes that will have a big impact on housing as we enter the busy home shopping season. Low inventory is a factor in almost every market, so buyers should be prepared for a limited selection in the months to come. Low oil prices are weighing on growth and employment in the Dakotas, Alaska and Texas, softening rental appreciation and home value growth in those states’ most oil-dependent communities. And global economic volatility is contributing to a strengthening U.S. dollar, which will impact demand from foreign buyers, and help keep mortgage interest rates low.

Our forecasting model incorporates previous data points of the Case-Shiller series, as well as Zillow Home Value Index data and national foreclosure resales.