February 2021 Case-Shiller Results & Forecast: Red Hot
Already rising at a blistering pace, the Case-Shiller home price indices pressed higher in February as competition for housing remained red hot.
- The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index® rose 12% year-over-year in February (non-seasonally adjusted), up from 11.2% in January.
- Annual growth was up from January in both the 20-city index (to 11.9%, from 11.1%) and 10-city index (to 11.7% from 10.9%).
- Phoenix (+17.4%), San Diego (17%) and Seattle (+15.4%) reported the highest year-over-year gains among markets in the 20-city index.
Already rising at a blistering pace, home price appreciation pressed higher in February as competition for housing remained red hot.
The national Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 12% year-over-year in February. The smaller 10- and 20-city composite indices almost matched that pace, at 11.7% and 11.9% year-over-year, respectively. The annual rate of growth was faster in February than in January in all three main indices. On a monthly (seasonally adjusted) basis, the national and 10-city indices were up 1.1% from January, while the 20-city index was up 1.2%.
| Zillow Forecast, Released 3/30/21 | Actual Case-Shiller Indices, Released 4/27/21 |
Historical Median Absolute Error* | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
0.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
11.6% | 11.7% | 0.2% |
| 20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| 20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
11.9% | 11.9% | 0.1% |
| U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
12% | 12% | 0.1% |
| *Calculation of Median Absolute Errors are based on Zillow’s forecasts dating to 2011. The national Case-Shiller forecasts began in 2014. | |||
As more signs emerge that the economy’s recovery is gathering steam, a wave of eager buyers – many of them seeking their first home purchase – remain determined to find their next home. But with relatively few for-sale homes on the market, bidding wars have become increasingly common, pushing sale prices higher and leading homes to sell at a record pace. In the near-term, it appears unlikely that these upward price pressures will relent meaningfully, particularly as recent retreats in mortgage rates offer many home shoppers increased buying power. However, after pausing in February, home listing activity has shown a meaningful improvement in recent weeks and some recent signs suggest that the historically tight inventory pressures may finally be starting to ease. Should those signs materialize, the meteoric rise in home prices may finally have a reason to come back down to earth. For now, red hot home price appreciation shows few signs of cooling.
Monthly growth in March as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to slow slightly from February in both of the smaller 10- and 20-city composite indices, and accelerate slightly in the national index. Annual growth is expected to accelerate across the board. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the March S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, May 25.
| Index | Actual Feb. Case-Shiller Change |
Zillow’s Forecast for the Case-Shiller March Indices |
|---|---|---|
| 10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.1% | 1.0% |
| 10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
11.7% | 12.3% |
| 20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.2% | 1.1% |
| 20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
11.9% | 12.7% |
| U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.1% | 1.2% |
| U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
12% | 12.8% |
Note: Case-Shiller and Case-Shiller Index are registered trademarks of CoreLogic Solutions, LLC. The statements herein are not endorsed by or provided in association or connection with CoreLogic, LLC.
