• Zillow expects June existing home sales to fall 0.4 percent from May to 5.41 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).
• New home sales should fall 2.2 percent from May, to 674,000 units (SAAR).

In June we expect both existing and new home sales to fall modestly from May, although new home sales will be up sharply from a year ago.

Existing home sales have been flat in a narrow range over the past six months – stuck stubbornly on a plateau where they have stagnated since early 2016. In both April and May, sales undershot forecasts, pointing to the pervasive inventory struggles in the housing market. We expect this sluggishness to continue in June, with our forecast pointing to a 0.4 percent drop from May to 5.41 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This puts existing home sales down 1.7 percent from June 2017. If the forecast proves accurate, it would be the slowest month for existing home sales since September 2016.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) will report existing home sales on Monday, July 23rd.

New home sales have gradually trended upward in fits and spurts, despite substantial cost headwinds in the sector. After surprisingly strong sales in May, our forecast points to a month-over-month decline of 2.2 percent in June to 674,000 units (SAAR). New home sales would still be up 9.3 percent from a year ago. However, new home permit data have been weak over the past two months, suggesting slower sales in the fall.

The U.S. Census Bureau will report new home sales on Wednesday, July 25th.