Zillow Home Value Forecast: August 2023

Zillow’s forecast of the nation’s typical home value was revised downward this month due to the anticipation of higher mortgage rates and a slight decrease in market tightness. Zillow forecasts the national Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) to rise 4.9% from August 2023 through August 2024, down from last month’s prediction of a 6.5% increase from July 2023 to July 2024.

August brought an unexpected late-summer uptick in the number of new for-sale listings entering the market. New listings increased by 4.0% from July to August, the first time in Zillow’s records in which the inflow of listings increased over that two month span. To be clear, August’s new listings total – as well as total for-sale inventory – remains well below typical levels seen prior to the pandemic, and inventory conditions remain very tight. That said, this unusual late-summer supply uptick helped to ease market conditions some, causing our outlook for home values to cool.

The tight inventory conditions and the persistence of elevated mortgage rates are also expected to continue to limit sales volume in the months to come. Zillow expects 4.1 million existing home sales to occur in 2023 – an 18% decline from 2022 – down slightly from last month’s prediction of 4.2 million.