Zillow Home Value Forecast: November 2023

Zillow’s outlook for national home values in 2024 was revised slightly upward this month, as early signs of optimism regarding the path of mortgage rates outweighed expectations for a less constrictive housing market.
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Zillow expects the national, non-seasonally-adjusted Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) to remain flat in 2024. This is a slight upward revision from our previous forecast, which expected a modest 0.2% decline in the nation’s typical home value next year. 

Zillow’s projection for existing home sales in 2024 was also adjusted slightly upward to 3.74 million, which would represent an 8.5% annual decline from 2023 — a year that we expect to log the lowest existing home sales volume since the mid-1990s. 

It’s important to note that this outlook does not factor in the latest official update from the Federal Reserve, which suggested that the central bank may be planning three cuts to their benchmark interest rate in 2024, and that prompted mortgage rates to fall sharply in recent weeks. Modest improvements in mortgage rates in November are reflected in this adjustment and were enough to outweigh expectations for the housing market to see an increase in listing activity in the coming months. The more-recent mortgage rate declines following the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be considered in our next forecast update, to be released in January.