Home Sales Forecast: July 2018

• Zillow expects existing home sales to increase 0.5 percent in July from June to 5.41 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).
• New home sales should rise 3.6 percent from June, to 654,000 units (SAAR).

Home sales should rebound modestly in July after a disappointing June, but only barely.

Existing home sales have been stagnant over the past year and a half. Since April, sales have posted a string of small monthly declines. We expect that streak to break in July, but only ever-so-slightly. Our July forecast suggests that existing home sales rose 0.5 percent in July from June to 5.41 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate – unchanged when the number is rounded and  down 0.2 percent from July 2017.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) will report existing home sales on Wednesday, Aug. 22.

New home sales have gradually edged higher over the past year and a half , but since late 2017, they have shown early signs of reaching a plateau similar to that of existing home sales.

We expect new home sales increased 3.6 percent in July from June to 654,000 units (SAAR) – toward the middle of the range where they have stabilized since November 2017. It will put new home sales up 17.6 percent over the past year.

However, unless new home sales increase sharply over the next six months – which is unlikely, in our view – the annual pace of growth in new home sales appears likely to flatline by the end of 2018.

The U.S. Census Bureau will report new home sales on Thursday, Aug. 23.