“Boring.” “Mysterious.” “Organic.” “Better.”
Words that all could describe a dry documentary or experimental menu item, yes, but also apt descriptors of what to expect for housing in 2015, according to panelists at a recent housing outlook discussion sponsored by S&P Down Jones Indices.
The discussion, moderated by CNBC Real Estate Correspondent Diana Olick and held at S&P’s New York City headquarters, brought together Nobel Laureate and Yale University Professor Dr. Robert Shiller; S&P Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee Dr. David Blitzer; Sam Khater, economist at CoreLogic; and Zillow’s own Senior Director of Economic Research Dr. Svenja Gudell.
The discussion focused on causes and effects of slowing home price gains; supply and demand, both for homes themselves and the credit needed to obtain them; changing demographics and the importance of millennials to housing; and lingering issues of income inequality and housing speculation.
In line with Zillow’s 2015 housing predictions, panelists agreed that the millennial generation would likely be a larger force in the market next year and going forward, but were split on just how much influence they might have and how it may influence policy moving forward.
Gudell argued that while millennials have thus far stayed out of the market, it was not for lack of desire to buy, but rather because of lifestyle choices that lead them to delay marriage and children, and therefore delay homeownership. But as they enter the market, demand for entry-level homes will grow, forcing builders to enter the market at the lower end.
Blitzer agreed that builders should focus on the bottom half of the market, but offered a word of caution, as well.
“The middle and lower tiers is where demand will be, yes, but that’s also the area where there has been the most volatility recently,” Blitzer said.
Shiller framed the debate in terms of economic inequality. He said that while incomes have stagnated or fallen for the middle and bottom parts of the market, they have risen dramatically for people at the top. As a result, maybe it wasn’t the right course of action to build at the bottom of the market.
“Maybe we need more mansions instead,” Shiller said.
“We have plenty of those,” Gudell replied.
Much of the problem stems from the fact that many millennials are currently renting, which does not help to build wealth in the way homeownership does. This spurred a discussion of whether it was appropriate to create a tax break for renters similar to the mortgage interest deduction enjoyed by current homeowners. While all panelists were intrigued by the idea, none supported it wholeheartedly, pointing out its expense and inefficiency. Instead, Khater and Gudell argued that a more targeted first-time buyer tax credit and a gradual scaling back of the mortgage interest deduction were better courses of action.
Because wealth building is so difficult in an environment in which rents are so unaffordable, panelists also discussed new mortgage products and new ways to widen credit access, particularly at the lower end.
Blitzer said the call for new mortgage products was all well and good, but in the end it wouldn’t help to alleviate shorter-term problems.
“There is a new kind of mortgage right now. It’s called renting an apartment,” Blitzer said. “That’s [potential entry-level buyers’] option right now.”
In the end, millennials will likely provide a demographic tailwind to the housing market in coming years, though just how much will remain to be seen, Khater said. Today’s renters are, after all, tomorrow’s buyers.