January 2021 Case-Shiller Results & Forecast: No End in Sight
The main Case-Shiller home prices indices continued to surge as the new year began, maintaining a torrid pace likely to persist for many more months.
- The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index® rose 11.2% year-over-year in January (non-seasonally adjusted), up from 10.4% in December.
- Annual growth was up from December in both the 20-city index (to 11.1%, from 10.2%) and 10-city index (to 10.9% from 9.9%).
- Phoenix (+15.8%), Seattle (+14.3%), and San Diego (+14.2%) reported the highest year-over-year gains among markets in the 20-city index.
Home prices continued their surge higher as the new year began, maintaining a torrid pace that appears likely to persist for many more months.
The national Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 11.2% year-over-year in January. The smaller 10- and 20-city composite indices almost matched that pace, at 11.1% and 10.9% year-over-year, respectively. The annual rate of growth was faster in January than in December in all three main indices. On a monthly (seasonally adjusted) basis, all three indices were up 1.2% in January from December.
| Zillow Forecast, Released 2/23/21 | Actual Case-Shiller Indices, Released 3/30/21 |
Historical Median Absolute Error* | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
0.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| 10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
10.4% | 10.9% | 0.2% |
| 20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| 20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
10.7% | 11.1% | 0.1% |
| U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
10.9% | 11.2% | 0.1% |
| *Calculation of Median Absolute Errors are based on Zillow’s forecasts dating to 2011. The national Case-Shiller forecasts began in 2014. | |||
As more signs of an improving economy continue to arrive, demand for housing remains elevated leading homes to fly off the shelves and red-hot competition for the relatively few homes available for sale. Homes in many areas went under contract in January — generally one of the slower times of the year — merely days after hitting the market and about a month faster than the same period a year ago. Seeing this, and unfazed by rising mortgage rates, a wave of eager buyers is being forced to act swiftly and face heightened competition for the few homes available. The combined dynamic is pushing prices upward at their strongest pace in years, and it doesn’t appear that there is an end in sight.
Monthly growth in January as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to slow slightly from December in all three main indices, while annual growth is expected to accelerate across the board. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the January S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, April 27.
| Index | Actual Jan. Case-Shiller Change |
Zillow’s Forecast for the Case-Shiller Feb. Indices |
|---|---|---|
| 10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.2% | 0.9% |
| 10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
10.9% | 11.6% |
| 20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.2% | 1.1% |
| 20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
11.1% | 11.9% |
| U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.2% | 1.1% |
| U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
11.2% | 12.0% |
Note: Case-Shiller and Case-Shiller Index are registered trademarks of CoreLogic Solutions, LLC. The statements herein are not endorsed by or provided in association or connection with CoreLogic, LLC.
