July 2021 Case-Shiller Results & Forecast: Scorching Hot
Home price growth remained scorching hot as the housing market entered the dog days of summer, but data released in the weeks since indicate cooler days in the months to come
- The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index® rose 19.7% year-over-year in July (non-seasonally adjusted), up from 18.7% in June.
- Annual growth was up from April in both the 20-city index (to 19.9%, from 18.5%) and 10-city index (to 19.1% from 18.5%).
- Phoenix (+32.4%), San Diego (27.8%) and Seattle (+25.5%) reported the highest year-over-year gains among markets in the 20-city index.
Home price growth remained scorching hot as the housing market entered the dog days of summer, but data released in the weeks since indicate cooler days in the months to come.
The national Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 19.7% year-over-year in June. Annual growth in the smaller 20-city composite index exceeded the national pace (19.9%) and annual growth in the 10-city index (19.1%) almost matched national appreciation. The annual rate of growth was faster in July than in June in all three main indices. On a monthly (seasonally adjusted) basis, the national index was up 1.5% from June, while the 10- and 20-city indices were up 1.4% and 1.5% month-over-month, respectively.
| Zillow Forecast, Released 8/31/21 | Actual Case-Shiller Indices, Released 9/28/21 |
Historical Median Absolute Error* | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
2.0% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| 10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
19.5% | 19.1% | 0.2% |
| 20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
2.1% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| 20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
20.3% | 19.9% | 0.1% |
| U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA) |
2.0% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
21.1% | 19.7% | 0.1% |
| *Calculation of Median Absolute Errors are based on Zillow’s forecasts dating to 2011. The national Case-Shiller forecasts began in 2014. | |||
With mortgage rates still near historic lows, competition for the relatively few for-sale homes remain very stiff and home prices continue to rise sharply as a result. But the tight market conditions that have fueled the skyrocketing prices are finally showing signs of loosening. For-sale inventory levels charted their fourth consecutive monthly increase in August, and sellers appear to be taking a less aggressive approach when putting their homes on the market. Annual growth in list prices peaked in the spring and price cuts are becoming more common. And while still-strong price growth continues to present challenging conditions for many would-be buyers, the softening market conditions do appear to be offering some home shoppers a reprieve. Home sales volumes improved in August and applications for home purchase mortgages – a leading indicator of sales activity – has risen in four of the last five week to reach its highest level since April. Price growth remains about as hot as ever, but the housing market is gradually retreating towards a more balanced state.
Monthly and annual growth in August as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to accelerate from July in all three main indices. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the June S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, October 26.
| Index | Actual July Case-Shiller Change |
Zillow’s Forecast for the Case-Shiller August Indices |
|---|---|---|
| 10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.4% | 1.7% |
| 10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
19.1% | 18.9% |
| 20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.5% | 1.8% |
| 20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
19.9% | 20.0% |
| U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.5% | 1.5% |
| U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
19.7% | 20.0% |
Note: Case-Shiller and Case-Shiller Index are registered trademarks of CoreLogic Solutions, LLC. The statements herein are not endorsed by or provided in association or connection with CoreLogic, LLC.
