July Case-Shiller Forecast: July’s Growth will be Slightly Slower than June

After several consecutive months of steady growth, the U.S. National Case-Shiller home price index is within striking distance of reaching its July 2006 peak levels, according to today’s June Case-Shiller data. According to Zillow’s July Case-Shiller forecast, the national index and both smaller 10 and 20-city indices look set to keep growing at a very similar rate, if ever-so-slightly slower, compared to the past few months.

The July Case-Shiller National Index is expected to grow 5 percent year-over-year and 0.2 percent month-to-month (seasonally adjusted). We expect the 10-City Index to grow 4.2 percent year-over-year and to fall 0.1 percent (SA) from June. The 20-City Index is expected to grow 5 percent between July 2015 and July 2016, and fall 0.1 percent (SA) from June.

Zillow’s July Case-Shiller forecast is shown in the table below. These forecasts are based on today’s June Case-Shiller data release and the July 2016 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI). The July S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices will not be officially released until Tuesday, September 27.