Case-Shiller Expected to Maintain Holding Pattern in June

The May S&P/Case-Shiller (SPCS) data published today showed home prices continuing to rise at an annual rate of five percent for the 20-city composite and 4.7 percent for the 10-city composite (seasonally adjusted). The national index has risen 4.4 percent since May 2014.

The non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) 10-City Index was up one percent month-over-month, while the 20-City index rose 0.8 percent (NSA) from April to May. We expect the change from May to June to show increases of 1 percent (NSA) for the 10-city index and 0.8 percent for both the 20-city and national indices.

All Case-Shiller forecasts are shown in the table below. These forecasts are based on today’s May SPCS data release and the June 2015 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI).The SPCS Composite Home Price Indices for June will not be officially released until Tuesday, August 25.

More on the differences between SPCS and ZHVI can be found here. Our commentary on recent revisions to the national S&P/Case-Shiller Index can be found here. To see how this month’s results compared to our forecast from last month, please click here.