June Case-Shiller: Housing Appreciation Remains Slow & Steady

Today, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed that the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) June 10- and 20-City Composites rose 4.6 percent and 5 percent, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. The U.S. National Index rose 4.5 percent year-over-year. Today’s data were in line with Zillow’s forecasts, released last month.

On a seasonally adjusted (SA) monthly basis, the 10- and 20-City Composites were both down 0.1 percent. The National Index was up 0.1 percent month-over-month (SA). The table below shows how Zillow’s forecast compared with the actual numbers.

“Between Greek default, war, plummeting oil prices and most recently fears of a Chinese slowdown, it’s been a volatile summer. Like swimming with a bully in the pool, it seems like every time the market comes up for air, something comes along and pushes it right back down again,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Svenja Gudell. “But even as the market overall has been inconsistent, the housing market in particular has largely remained on the same course – a steady slowdown, with monthly home value growth even turning negative. This will have mostly positive impacts on housing and will eventually lead to more inventory and more stable growth. But positive market conditions for housing aren’t the same as positive consumer sentiment, and it will be interesting to see if all this volatility causes consumers to sour and change their home buying and selling behavior.”

Our forecasting model incorporates previous data points of the Case-Shiller series, as well as Zillow Home Value Index data and national foreclosure resales. To see how Zillow’s forecast of the May Case-Shiller indices compared, see our research brief from last month.