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Zillow Research

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Spooky Season is Here to Stay: Mortgage Affordability May Never Recover

Housing affordability has become the highest barrier for both buyers and sellers in today’s housing market. Throughout the pandemic, as prices were rising to never-before-seen heights and inventory plummeted to their lowest level in at least 40 years, low mortgage rates helped keep monthly payments affordable for most home buyers who could afford a down payment. But now that rates are soaring, that monthly payment is climbing out of reach for many.

Home Price Declines Moderated in September, Thanks To Temporary Mortgage Rate Relief (September 2022 Market Report)

Home values flatlined in September, ending a 2-month slide in which they fell 0.4% from a peak of $359,719 in June. The reprieve in home price declines may be thanks to a late-summer drop in mortgage rates, to an average of 5.22% in August on a 30-year fixed loan, which gave some buyers a reason to jump off the fence and buy then. Due to the elapsed time of multiple weeks between home purchase offers being made and the transactions closing, August’s more favorable lending conditions likely affected closed sale prices in September. Unfortunately for buyers, rates have risen dramatically since August, and reached a new 20-year high of 6.92% in mid-October, promising a further market cooldown ahead.

Zillow Home Value and Sales Forecast: October 2022

Zillow expects home value growth to continue to slow over the coming months. The national Zillow Home Value Index, which increased by 12.9% in the twelve months ending in September, is expected to grow by just 1.3% in the next twelve months, according to Zillow’s monthly home value forecast. This long-term outlook is in line with last month’s projections, which called for a 1.2% annual increase.