March 2021 Case-Shiller Results & Forecast: Not Slowing Any Time Soon
The pressures that have pushed home prices upward at their fastest pace in years remain in place and prices continue to press higher.
- The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index® rose 13.2% year-over-year in March (non-seasonally adjusted), up from 12% in February.
- Annual growth was up from February in both the 20-city index (to 13.3%, from 12%) and 10-city index (to 12.8% from 11.7%).
- Phoenix (+20%), San Diego (19.1%) and Seattle (+18.3%) reported the highest year-over-year gains among markets in the 20-city index.
While signs are emerging that the consistent decline of for-sale inventory is beginning to slow and could be on the verge of reversing, the pressures that have pushed home prices upward at their fastest pace in years remain in place and prices continue to press higher.
The national Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 13.2% year-over-year in March. Annual growth in the smaller 20-city composite index exceeded the national pace (13.3%) and annual growth in the 10-city index (12.8%) almost matched national appreciation. The annual rate of growth was faster in March than in February in all three main indices. On a monthly (seasonally adjusted) basis, the national index was up 1.5% from February, while the 10- and 20-city indices were up 1.4% and 1.6% month-over-month, respectively.
| Zillow Forecast, Released 4/27/21 | Actual Case-Shiller Indices, Released 5/25/21 |
Historical Median Absolute Error* | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.0% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| 10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
12.3% | 12.8% | 0.2% |
| 20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.1% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| 20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
12.7% | 13.3% | 0.1% |
| U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.2% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
12.8% | 13.2% | 0.1% |
| *Calculation of Median Absolute Errors are based on Zillow’s forecasts dating to 2011. The national Case-Shiller forecasts began in 2014. | |||
Following sharp monthly declines in January and February, March saw a more modest retreat in inventory, suggesting that the historically tight inventory pressures may finally be starting to ease. But that anticipated relief has not yet materialized and the competition for the relatively few homes on the market remains red hot. Nationally, nearly half of all homes that go under contract are doing so in less than a week and nearly a third of homes are selling for above their initial list price – more than twice the share from a year ago. What’s more, mortgage rates have held near all-time lows and the gradual re-opening of the economy has encouraged many would-be buyers to enter the mix. All told, there is little, if any, indication that home prices will slow their appreciation anytime soon.
Monthly and annual growth in April as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to accelerate from March and April 2020 in all three main indices. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the April S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, June 29.
| Index | Actual March Case-Shiller Change |
Zillow’s Forecast for the Case-Shiller March Indices |
|---|---|---|
| 10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.4% | 1.7% |
| 10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
12.8% | 13.9% |
| 20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.6% | 1.9% |
| 20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
13.3% | 14.3% |
| U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.5% | 2.1% |
| U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
13.2% | 14.3% |
Note: Case-Shiller and Case-Shiller Index are registered trademarks of CoreLogic Solutions, LLC. The statements herein are not endorsed by or provided in association or connection with CoreLogic, LLC.
