March Case-Shiller: Slightly Stronger-Than-Expected Growth on the Coasts

Home price growth in larger coastal areas – as reflected in the March Case-Shiller 10- and 20-City Composite Indices – slightly exceeded expectations in March, while overall U.S. home price growth was slightly slower than expected.

Today, the three main March Case-Shiller indices all registered monthly and annual growth. But the pace of growth in both the 10- and 20-city composite indices, which largely include housing markets on the more densely populated and faster-moving coasts, was flat with or slightly higher than February. Growth in the larger, national index slowed somewhat in March from February. The 20-City Composite index rose 5.4 percent from March 2015 through March 2016, the same pace as last month. The 10-City Composite index grew 4.7 percent year-over-year, up slightly from 4.6 percent in February. The U.S. National Case-Shiller index grew 5.2 percent year-over-year, down from a 5.3 percent pace in February.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the 10- and 20-City March Case-Shiller indices grew 0.8 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively, in March from February – up from 0.6 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively, in February from January. The national index grew 0.4 percent month-over-month in March, down from the 0.4 percent monthly pace recorded in February.

Below are Zillow’s forecasts of March Case-Shiller data, along with the actual March Case-Shiller numbers released today.

Home price appreciation came in stronger than expected, with West coast markets showing some of the largest gains, in today’s March Case-Shiller data. It remains a tough home buying season, with little inventory available among lower-priced homes. The competition is locking out some first-time buyers, who instead are paying record-high rents. For home buyers looking for a home, the luxury market and the condo market are places to find a better selection – and even some price cuts – as supply in these segments outpaces demand.