March Home Sales Forecast: Damn the Weather

• Zillow expects existing home sales to fall 0.7 percent in March, falling to 5.5 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).
• New home sales should fall 4.4 percent from February, to 591,000 units (SAAR).

Wintry weather across much of the country in March kept home shoppers inside, compounding the headwinds from tight for-sale inventory and higher mortgage rates. After an unexpectedly strong February, we expect existing home sales fell 0.7 percent in March to 5.5 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This would put existing home sales down 3 percent over the past year. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) will report existing home sales on Monday, April 23.

New home sales also are facing headwinds and have declined for three consecutive months through February. We expect new home sales to continue this recent trend, falling 4.4 percent to 491,000 units (SAAR) for March. This would put new home sales down 7.4 percent year-over-year.